Political Standing
Political Standing for April 9, 2010
Political Standing was forced to take a different approach this week with the developments that occurred. There are no “ups” or “downs”, but only “pushes.” Pushes were given to people or groups driving the week, but in the end were neither up, nor down.
PUSH
Gov. John Lynch: Lynch had to like headlines of how NH is “the safest state” that will be good for his re-election — if there is one. He also had to revel in the concept of being a good manager and deciding what he will cut and not cut. But Lynch also knows this $85 million in cuts will serve as a drip-drip-drip of negative news stories on each problem or each recipient of these services or each layoff. The bigger political issue for Lynch is why are we seeing headlines about cutting spending and raising taxes instead of repealing the LCC and camper taxes (he if agrees with that one)? Lynch owns these cuts and he is getting zero credit.
Paul Hodes: Hodes did a “middle class jobs” tour around the state this week. It is exactly the kind of thing Hodes should have been doing after every fund-raising quarter, but never really did. Over all the “tour” was . . . fine. He got a lot of local press hits out of it, but these were events attended by around 30 people or less. How many new supporters did he pick up, really? Hodes gets an A for effort and a continued slide in the polls for execution.
Katrina Swett: Yes, she did soundly out fund-raise every other person running for Congress. But she was supposed to. And if you compare 2002 Katrina Sweet for Congress and 2007 Katrina Swett for U.S. Senate with 2010 Katrina Swett for Congress you’ll come away less impressed. (Maybe its why DiStaso buried her exclusive to him in his column.) But as stated last week Katrina has the money in the bank to the point where her fund-raising now doesn’t really matter. It would be nice if she actually, I dunno, campaigned now.
Ovide Lamontagne: The Republican U.S Senate candidate finished the week with two pieces of great news. First, a Rasmussen Poll out shows him finally beating Democrat Paul Hodes in a head to head match-up. Second, news of a vacancy on the Supreme Court gives him another shot at trying to make the Senate race an ideological litmus test, something that hasn’t been working lately. Still, Bill Binnie surpassed Lamontagne in the Senate race a few months ago, Romney said this week he won’t be endorsing him, and people are beginning to just not talk about him much anymore.
Gambling proponents: A new gambling sponsored poll had some pretty dramatic numbers making their case. Some 72 percent of state residents want to expand gambling to fix the state’s current budget mess. Support for gambling is bi-partisan, nearly evenly divided with gender, consistent across education and income and everywhere geographically, except a little less so in the North Country. When asked people said they would even be more likely to vote for politician who voted for gambling. Obviously they are industry numbers, but still. They also have momentum and these proposed budget cuts will work in their favor. Yet for all that the gambling bill is still down 25 or so votes in the House and has a governor who is more likely not to sign it that to sign it.
Charlie Bass: Another week is completed and there is Charlie Bass still the untouched front-runner in the Second District Republican primary. This week his campaign also had good news that they hired an experienced campaign manager. But the six-term former Congressman who has everything going for him was out-raised by three first time Congressional candidates and his potential opponent Katrina Swett. Bass has never been a big fund-raiser, but Republican activists were promised a different Bass campaign this time around.
Kelly Ayotte: Her campaign to be considered the “inevitable nominee” was helped today when she became the first candidate in the Rasmussen poll to crack 50 percent in a head to head match-up. But Bill Binnie was right there with 49 percent. Also Ayotte probably doesn’t appreciate having to talk about a U.S. Supreme Court pick all summer that will surely force her to say things to placate the right that she would just rather not say in a perfect world.
NH Newspapers: The Nashua Telegraph broke the news that they (along with the Concord Monitor, Portsmouth Herald and Conway Daily Sun) plan to start charging for content to their websites. This is a good thing because they have to do something to try to stop the hemorrhaging of money. But there is a flip side: they have to prove they are worth paying for even though most have shrunk their staffs. Just ask the Union Leader how that worked out for them. Plus, with their huge legacy costs and infrastructure it is hard to see how a small “metered” plan is a path back to profitability. It still doesn’t replace their lost classifieds.
Michael Dennehy: The news this week that Concord Republican consultant parted ways with Independent Massachusetts Gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill struck people as just flat out weird. But if it wasn’t working out at least everyone (*cough* Pawlenty, Thune) know he is available.
Frank Guinta: A week ago there had to be a part of Guinta that thought his solid fund-raising number would make people believe he “was back” and that he could drive the news cycle this week and maybe even scare Sean Mahoney a little bit. Guinta is “back” but so was Mahoney to suck all of the conversation. But… if Mahoney wants to have fight over the Tea Party folks that is a fight Guinta has already won.
Sean Mahoney: Mahoney is the person who inspired the “push week” altogether. There is no doubt that Mahoney drove the week politically even more than Mitt Romney did. What is less clear is whether it helps him become the 32nd person to represent New Hampshire’s First Congressional District since it was made a district in 1847. If this were a Patrick Hynes “get pageviews” publicity test then clearly Mahoney passed. It got picked up in most New Hampshire papers and a number of national press outlets picked it up including the Washington Post and The New York Times. And, yes, when Mahoney told friends he was going for a second day of getting his name in the paper (this attempt, followed by actually getting in the race later) he scored. But if the goal is to win a Republican Primary he must have heard near the statewide pan of his little RNC resignation play. The word “opportunistic” was used six times by six different people — all Republicans and all without affiliation in the primary. So now he is not the Republican establishment candidate, and next week he’ll try to be the Tea Party candidate. If that doesn’t work, then what? What is the angle?