NH Political Report » Political Standing

Political Standing for July 23, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 21:06:11 +0000

PLUG

Over the weekend New Hampshire Public Television will air a 30 minute forum with the Republicans running for the First Congressional District. The forum was sponsored by the Manchester Republican Committee and moderated by NHPoliticalReport.com’s James Pindell. Even in the short time period there were a little fireworks and a little laughter. The times it will air are: Fri. 7/23 @ 6:00pm, Sun. 7/25 @ 9:30am, Mon. 7/26 @ 5:30am and 6:00pm, Tues. 7/27 @ 1:00am

QUESTIONS OF THE WEEK

How great is it that Fran Wendelboe has a “Fran for State Senate” bumper sticker on her Subaru Forrester. Forrester, get it?

On Monday former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will co-host a fund-raiser for Chris Sununu’s Executive Council bid. Given that Bob Guida was the one who made an inarticulate statement about gay marriage and animals like Santorum did years ago, doesn’t it make more sense for Santorum to campaign with Giuda?

How much of the semantics game are we really going to play in the Democratic Primary for the Second Congressional District? Katrina Swett removed “civil unions” from her website and replaced it with “would fight for federal legislation.” Ann McLane Kuster wants the technicality that she wasn’t a “Washington lobbyist” but a Concord one. I guess the distinction worked for Barack Obama.

What does it mean the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reserved $28 million worth of television time for embattled Democratic incumbents this week, but didn’t do it for Carol Shea-Porter? Does that mean, as the POLITICO suggested, that they “left her off” and gave up or that they are really confident in her chances?

UP

Kelly Ayotte: This was supposed to be the year when candidates like Ayotte — Washington recruited, locally establishment backed, no record, facing a more conservative opponent — were supposed to be all wiped out. Luckily for her the primary wasn’t in the Spring and her conservative opponent is not as viable as he was months ago. Then this week came the conservative seal of approval from Sarah Palin in her endorsement of the campaign. At a time when the much more moderate primary opponent Bill Binnie has been creeping up to a near neck and neck contest, the Palin endorsement re-frames the race ideologically (and not on establishment vs grassroots) just when primary voters are beginning to really clue in.

Patrick Hynes: If you look around the internet and see all the tough stories on Frank Guinta there is one person who deserves the credit. He is very good at what he does.

Manchester Republican Committee: Chair Cliff Hurst had in mind putting together a simple forum for Congressional and gubernatorial candidates. The simple forum turned into arguably the kick off for the real primary season. There were as many sign holders outside as there are at a WMUR debate (granted there were 10 candidates) and over 200 people signed in to attend. And it is not just that, but it is also the first statewide televised forum for both races.

Jennifer Horn: Her campaign is still probably broke, but she is calling in all the chits she has out there with 7 weeks to the primary. This week she got the endorsement of Cornerstone.

Carol Shea-Porter: The First District Congresswoman has to like that Vicki Kennedy will do a fund-raiser for her in September and the fact that her Republican opponents are beginning to engage.

DOWN

Ann McLane Kuster: Last week her primary opponent Katrina Swett got a down arrow because the week was dominated by a defensive gay marriage conversation. This week it is Kuster on the defensive about her lobbying background that even took up room in her editorial board meeting with the Nashua Telegraph. Swett did a nice “change the subject” play.

Paul Hodes: Most weeks this list just ignores him hoping to avoid the piling on every week, but the sense of desperation in the huge negative ad buy this week and appearance of push polling before the general election campaign even begins has left Democrats with nothing to say or defend anymore. Obviously they are doubling down. What does that say about how they see the race? They better hope that Ayotte is the nominee or they just wasted $300,000 on television ads against someone they won’t even face.

National Republican Senatorial Committee: Their independent expenditure arm is committing malpractice as it applies to our state’s U.S. Senate race. Democrat Hodes hasn’t done one ounce of positive television media and has no money to defend himself this far out. Why haven’t they taken him out with a well executed attack, even short term? It is the very definition of their role in the process.

Bill Binnie: Why is Binnie even engaging with Sarah Palin and Cornerstone hits on him, especially when he doesn’t have good comebacks? Engaging Cornerstone just leads to another round of stories with “stunningly liberal” next to Binnie’s name. This was supposed to be the disciplined campaign that only talked to the public via their own media. He is taken incoming fire like Ayotte used to.

Political Standing: Palin endorses Ayotte special edition

James Pindell — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 14:22:36 +0000

CONTEXT

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin got involved in the state’s U.S. Senate race late yesterday by endorsing former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in her four way Republican primary. The endorsement is a game changer.

QUESTIONS

WWJD: What will Jeb Do? So Team Binnie now has longtime trusted Jeb Bradley advisers like Deb Vanderbeek, Bob Clegg, and Periklis Karoutas. Kelly Ayotte now has Palin, who famously snubbed Bradley in 2008 because he is pro-choice. Will Jeb make a big play and choose sides in the Senate race finally or is he still of the “making friends, not enemies” mindset?

Will Sarah visit? A mid-August trip is close to the September 14th primary and would dominate the week’s news.

Will Jennifer Horn be next? The only person in New Hampshire who needs the Sarah Palin seal of approval more than Kelly Ayotte is Jennifer Horn.

UP

Steve Duprey: The former state party chair/early Ayotte backer/former John McCain traveling buddy has been a major player in this campaign. He worked hard for this endorsement and he got it.

Bad jokes: The bad jokes have already started. Yes Kelly Ayotte can see Massachusetts from her house. Sure, Ovide Lamontagne might want to “refudiate” the endorsement. Are more on the way? You betcha.

Paul Hodes: Nothing says fund-raising for Democrats like Sarah Palin.

WMUR: That sound you are hearing is either Bill Binnie taking more money out to give to WMUR in television ads or the sound of WMUR already depositing the money.

DOWN

Firefighters union: Why would anyone, especially the very savvy firefighters union, announce their endorsement of Kelly Ayotte at the same time as Palin did the same? The firefighters, with their strong reputation in the state as being players in elections, deserved their own day and they didn’t even get their 15 minutes.

Ovide Lamontagne: When Sarah Palin declares someone else the real conservative in the race it kills Lamontagne’s argument.

Jennifer Horn: Just an hour after she receives the Cornerstone endorsement was the news of Palin endorsing Ayotte. Not that she could do anything about it, she was just unlucky.

Political Standing for July 16, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 22:11:31 +0000

QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND

Last Saturday three prominent New Hampshire Democrats were traveling in foreign countries. Jeanne Shaheen was in Egypt at the tail end of a trip that included Iraq. Carol Shea-Porter was in Germany meeting with wounded troops during a layover on her way back from Afghanistan. Paul Hodes was in Canada attending a trial lawyer convention asking for political contributions. How does that look?
OK, seriously now, how was Frank Guinta able to loan his Congressional campaign $245,000 to date? Where did this money come from and how much more of it is there? Look at his personal financial disclosure form when he entered the race in May 2009 and you’ll see that he had between $106,000 to $400,000 in investments and some money in property. In June 2009 he reported loaning the campaign $20,000. But here is the thing: if he liquidated some of that investment money, wouldn’t it have shown up on his year end personal disclosure form? It didn’t. The other $225,000 in loans came this year, but Guinta is late on filing an updated disclosure form (that was due in May.) Everything could very well be on the up and up, but if anything Guinta, like most candidates and required by law, needs to fill out an updated Form B personal disclosure form. (Here is a link to the Ethics committee on the rules.)
West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin III appoints a 36 year old trial lawyer to the U.S. Senate on Friday and no Republican takes the opportunity to hit Hodes on the trial lawyer angle?
How bad are Ovide Lamontagne’s fund-raising numbers that it is a day after the numbers were due and we still don’t know how much he raised? Among insiders the question is whether or not he even raised six figures.
Why did Gov John Lynch’s team even respond to John Stephen’s economic plan this week? Doesn’t news of a lower unemployment rate on the same day as Stephen’s press conference kind of say everything you want it to? Why step on that message and muddle it with a property tax discussion?

UP

Teddy Gatsas: The Manchester Mayor continued his practice of upstaging his predecessor by showing that you can get good press as a result of a Manchester bar fight.

Carol Shea-Porter: Who would ever think that Shea-Porter would be the fund-raising leader of anything? She led all of her Republican opponents in fund-raising for the last quarter, has the most base support of any New Hampshire Democrat, and just completed a trip to Afghanistan while her Republican opponents played politics and are about to turn on each other.

Sean Mahoney: By loaning his campaign $801K, Mahoney has made abundantly clear that he is serious about winning this Congressional seat. With the enormous presence on TV, he’s starting to separate from the pack. In addition Mahoney was just waiting for someone to call his primary rival, Frank Guinta, a grandstander and stimulus supporter, but they didn’t think that surrogate would be Kelly Ayotte.

Ann McLane Kuster: A good round of endorsements this week, including the Firefighters.

Neil Levesque and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics: The announcement that the WMUR/Union Leader debates were moving from the television station to the Institute just reinforces where the center of politics is in this state. It is hard to recognize the place compared to what it was just a year ago.

Bill Binnie: In a lot of ways his contrast ad was absolutely brilliant. What can Ayotte even say back? Does she even have the money to take the bait?

DOWN

Kelly Ayotte: It certainly couldn’t have been a fun call to Frank Guinta on Thursday to talk about her “grandstanding” comment. If only to be a fly on the wall when she call “always wrong” Kevin Landrigan. Unlike Guinta, Landrigan doesn’t have be nice. Further Kelly needs to watch her wallet. All of that said, with Lamontagne moving a little out of the picture will she rally as being the true conservative? Is that even an option?

Jennifer Horn: As a NHPoliticalReport.com analysis showed today her campaign is officially broke. She has negative $900 of cash on hand for the primary. If people are anti-Charlie Bass in the Second District Republican primary when are they going to view Bob Guida as their only option?

Rich Ashooh: Ashooh is so well liked that there were a lot of grimaces on faces Friday when people learned that he only raised $106,000 in the last three months, some $100,000 less than he raised in the previous quarter. Others may have political standing well below Ashooh’s but he fell the furthest this week.

Katrina Swett: First, a word to Swett detractors on the left: you can’t say that the Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional because the federal government has no role on marriage definition and then demand the federal government pass a federal gay marriage bill. Still, this week ended with Swett on the defense and not talking about the economy or jobs.

Political Standing for July 9, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 21:22:35 +0000

Questions of the day:

If the Laconia city manager is so worried about an unwholesome image of the place shouldn’t she worry more about bike week instead of a Paul Hodes ad?

Speaking of Hodes, when will he release his fund-raising report, how will he do it and how much will he have banked for cash on hand?

UP

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services press office: Somehow HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius came and went from the state so quickly and on message with a number of press stories on the benefits on the recently passed health care law that no opponents were able to organize protests.

Carol Shea-Porter: With no primary, some money in the bank and an escalating GOP primary on the other side, she has the most contented base support of any of the leading Democrats. It’s hard to believe, but she may be the Democrats safest bet in November.

Kelly Ayotte: The Republican U.S. Senate candidate announced she raised a personal best of $720,000 in the last quarter which impressed even her critics. It demonstrated that all the negative FRM chatter didn’t hurt her where it mattered. Still no matter how much money she raises it doesn’t change the growing competitive nature of her primary.

UNH: led a statewide, multi-partner effort to bring in over $44 million to expand broadband and foster greater economic development in the state.

New Hampshire: We have pristine natural beauty, a tax-free climate and now Jesus. So What Would Jesus Do? Appear in a flag in the Granite State. Oh what people will do to sell newspapers.

DOWN

Ryan Murdough: The Republican State Representative candidate from Ashland outed himself as a white supremacist in a Concord Monitor letter to the editor and the fallout meant that everyone — particularly Republicans — distanced themselves from him. People have questioned his judgment all week, but here is another reason why he isn’t thinking: he should have run for Congress. Apparently people like Glenn Beck believe that the new federal 10 percent “tan tax” on using tanning beds is racist against white folks.

Ovide Lamontagne: The robust fundraising totals for his primary rivals Kelly Ayotte, Bill Binnie and even Jim Bender make the “the base loves Ovide and we are best organized” argument harder and harder. They desperately need a break in the form of an early endorsement from the Union Leader. Respect and friendship there are not enough. They need the legendary all encompassing embrace and then the destruction of the opponents. But it’s not happening.

Frank Guinta: Democrats are now going after Sean Mahoney and Rich Ashooh and ignoring Guinta. What does that say about how they are seeing the race?

Political Standing for July 2, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 13:41:29 +0000

UP

Ann McLane Kuster: The Second Congressional District Democratic candidate had her best fund-raising quarter yet and has not slowed down momentum.

Ovide Lamontagne and Jim Bender: With the Republican U.S. Senate primary a complete crapshoot there are no longer front-runners or longshots. Anyone who tells you that they know who will win this primary is either rooting for a candidate or doesn’t know what they are talking about. The real campaign hasn’t even begun.

Mitt Romney: The potential Republican presidential candidate gets the nod of approval from GOP Chair John H. Sununu in the Union Leader for donating significant money to the party.

The New Hampshire Primary: As the National Journal reported this week, both political parties are solidifying the state’s first-in-the-nation role in 2012. The fact that it will likely get moved back from January to February just means more attention.

Bob Bestani: This First Congressional District Republican candidate made a strong stand on an important issue by calling for troops out of Afghanistan. Who knows if it will have impact, but it was serious and far from a gimmick. He is at least trying.

Debates: In 2008 organizations had to strategize and count their lucky stars to get the chance at holding a debate or candidate forum. This year apparently it is the easiest thing to put on.

DOWN

Bob Giuda: We can discuss how Giuda stepped in it by comparing gay marriage to bestiality (only to later apologize and compare it to marrying a telephone pole). The most attention his campaign has ever received was on this gaffe and it has nothing to do with his campaign viability or the most important issue: jobs.

Union Leader: Usually the editorial page pushes agendas and the news pages give the facts. But on what they dub “letters-gate” it was the other way around.

John Lynch: Some candidates have to sell the path to win, but insiders are exploring Lynch’s the path to defeat and seeing that it isn’t impossible. Lynch is still, by far, expected to win this race, but compare his standing today to that of Charlie Bass on July 4, 2006. Everyone liked Charlie that your as well and he lost swimming upstream.

American Research Group: With the heat on the Research 2000 poll, will these groups now target Manchester-based ARG?

NH law enforcement: First, they get accused of violating the Hatch Act by appearing in political TV ads. Now, they have a new law opening up their driving records on the job for public inspection. This was not a good week for the police officers of the state.

Political Operatives: Maybe it is the bad economy, but with hotly contested races, a Supreme Court nomination, immigration, financial and energy bills you’d think third party groups would hire local organizers to just wear a chicken outfit or something. But there is no such thing going on this summer.

Political Standing for June 25, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 22:02:53 +0000

Water cooler questions for the weekend

Is Paul Hodes the first campaign since Jim Coburn in 2006 to begin with a negative ad? And is this the earliest we have seen a negative ad rebuttal ad?

For those who point to our scoop of Kelly Ayotte losing her field director as a sign things are going badly, let’s ask this question: which Senate campaign still doesn’t have a field director to even lose?

Months ago this space questioned why there wasn’t an independent FRM investigation given that the Attorney General was investigating its own office. With Executive Councilors picking up this theme this week doesn’t it make political sense to Lynch to appoint an independent investigator and delay removal proceedings until past Election Day?

UP

John Stephen: The Republican gubernatorial nominee posted a big fund-raising number this week that unofficially ends whatever primary he had and will calm any remaining criticism about his campaign. His fund-raising number exceeded everyone’s expectations and confirmed that he is going to be the first Republican candidate for governor in six years to run a credible campaign. Stephen will never have as much money as Lynch (since the Governor can write himself a check anytime), but he’s going to have the resources for staff and paid media.

Bill Binnie: He’s catching every break and capitalizing on the other Republican candidates’ lackluster campaigns. Now Paul Hodes is doing his dirty work for him by attacking Ayotte on television with FRM ads. He still has a lot of work to do between now and September 14, but prospects are improving everyday.

Kelly Ayotte: There is no need to weigh in on the negative ad war or the concern among Ayotte supporters about this campaign. There are only one name required that gives her an up this week: Rob Varsalone. He has been an Ayotte supporter since the early days, but the fact that he is joining the campaign is beyond huge. He is exactly what this campaign needs.

Dan Eaton: Continues to walk through the raindrops on the Mark Bodi scandal that he started.

Scott Spradling: His work with NHIS has thrown him into a major sporting event and a major opportunity with this recent Loudon squabble between the town and the speedway.

Sean Mahoney: He had a packed fund-raiser in Rye last night with enthusiastic donors including some who may have previously been with his primary opponents. He is starting to act like a front-runner and there is open debate right now as to whether he actually is the front-runner.

Nancy Stiles: The Republican challenger to State Sen. Martha Fuller Clark is the perfect candidate on paper. Fuller Clark is rumored to have “woken up” realizing this is going to be very challenging. Unless she fights back hard this will be the “sleeper” on election night.

Ann McLane Kuster: Picked up solid endorsements this week.

DOWN

Carol Shea-Porter: You never want a story to use the words “Class B Felony”. That is what the National Review accused her of committing when all she wanted to do was send letters to graduating Manchester honor roll students. Shea-Porter’s team argues they followed the law to the T. But unless this gets fixed quickly Republicans are gearing up to make this a real problem.

Paul Hodes: The fact that Hodes had to go up with his own negative ad — for his first ad of the campaign — confirms that the DSCC isn’t willing to help him out (sorry, goofy Facebook pages don’t count).

Frank Emiro: When you are a Republican running for office and speaking in front of a 9/12 group you probably shouldn’t call them “TeaBaggers.” Especially when you see a video camera.

Political Standing for June 18, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 21:42:59 +0000

Water cooler questions for the weekend

What was the first thing Jeb Bradley said when he heard Ted Gatsas endorsed Sean Mahoney for Congress and not Frank Guinta?

How much cash on hand does Paul Hodes have?

How many fund-raising calls did Gov. John Lynch make during his eight hours driving to and a from a graduation speech at Pittsburg High School today? (The graduating class is 11.)

UP

Sean Mahoney: Mahoney forcefully challenged the narrative that he is just a “Seacoast guy” when he grabbed the endorsement of Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas. The move also opened debate about the nature of the First District Republican Primary itself and who the front-runner really might be at this point. If it is a ground war then Guinta has strong advantages, but if this is becoming more like a higher turnout air war Mahoney is owning this race.

Bill Gardner: Over the years he has earned credibility to inflict serious damage when he calls something “over the top” as he did this week with the FRM report.

Andy Leach: The NHGOP Executive Director did all the work to build such an effective recruiting class, yet his boss, Chairman Sununu gets all the credit.

John Broderick: The State Supreme Court justice announced his resignation after 15 years on the bench. He is going out on his own terms.

Sarah Crawford: There was too much media attention on the fact that Minnestoa Gov. Tim Pawlenty set up political action committees in Iowa and New Hampshire and not enough on the fact that he hired Crawford to be his person on the ground here. She is the best state Republican operative most people have never heard of.

John Lynch: Good news on unemployment has to make him feel a little better.

DOWN

Kelly Ayotte: There diverse opinions as to whether Republican U.S. Senate candidate and former Attorney General Ayotte was up for the week or down following her testimony to the legislative committee on FRM. To understand the situation one must recognize two essential facts. First, there is a big disconnect between Washington’s frenzy on the issue and the one day news cycle snoozefest locally. Second, even those who argue she was up only argue it because expectations were so low and there weren’t any gotcha moments. Did Ayotte perform as best she could on Monday? Yes. But the reality is that she is still talking about it as we close out a critical fund-raising quarter where she needs all the Washington money she can get.

Kathy Sullivan: It is rare when the Attorney General’s office even responds to political complaints on issues where there is minimal impatc. Not only did the Democratic Attorney General’s office respond to the longest serving Democratic Party chair in state history, they strongly rebuked her.

Frank Guinta: Guinta was caught flatfooted when Gatsas endorsed Mahoney and all he responded with was a Craig Benson endorsement and a puny first ad buy.

Joe Kelly Levasseur: The Union Leader calls him out (and NHAC) for dropping the ball on the tax cap appeal. Not a way for a Republican to start a state senate campaign in Manchester.

Political Standing for June 11, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 22:18:40 +0000

Recruiting Grades

The filing period is now over so how did the parties do?

Republicans, Grade B-. For some races Republicans could not have done a better job recruiting. They were able to recruit Chris Sununu for Executive Council for a seat that could go Republican in a year like this and if Democratic incumbent Bev Hollingworth doesn’t get her campaign act in gear (and frankly when has she ever?) When they got three State Senate retirements the GOP quickly found replacements that are significant upgrades to their bench and will easily get elected. And look at Nancy Stiles in Hampton as the strategically brilliant pick against Martha Fuller Clark. Even in districts where they probably won’t win they have got the best candidates anyone could dream of. Against Peg Gilmour they have a charismatic megachurch pastor with some personal money. Against Mandy Merrill they found a former political operative and Northwestern MBA who was leading his own political meetings with the NHGOP about voting history data of the district he knows cold. Against Molly Kelly they got former Senate President Tom Eaton to try again. Even though Eaton probably won’t win he is by far the best Republicans could do and they got him. And let’s not forget that they kept Sens. Bob Odell and John Gallus running. And where they a really tough time in winning like the State Senate seats Lou D’Allesandro, Senate President Sylvia Larsen and Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli they have recruits who will certainly get media coverage and drive the Democratic incumbents batty.

For all of the above Republicans deserve an A+, but the failure to recruit the best candidates in the two most important recruiting races for Republicans drops their grade down significantly. First, in the governor’s race Republicans were able to recruit a top tier candidate against Democratic incumbent Gov. John Lynch, but he is far from perfect. John Stephen has been raising money lately and no one will work harder, but he as a record that is the perfect foil for Lynch. Some Republicans openly still whisper that if the likely nominee had been someone like Sean Mahoney the race would be tied. The second a major failure of the Republican Party was not recruiting someone better and earlier against Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan. Hassan has never exceeded expectations electorally. (She has lost when she was supposed to lose and won when she was supposed to win.) If Republicans found a professional female who ran her own LLC and was connected to the business community or just ran someone with the last name of Scamman the Democratic establishment would have spent so much of limited resources to protect what they believe to be the next Democratic gubernatorial nominee. As it stands she will still need to work, but it is not as bad is it could’ve (and should’ve) been.

Democrats, Grade D. Democrats have to be happy about a few things. Gov. John Lynch is running again and while he will be distancing himself from some in the legislature (and the feeling is mutual) he is the strongest political force on the ballot this year period. They also have to be happy that Martha Fuller Clark, Deb Pignatelli, and Mandy Merrill are running again. And not that they could control this, but they also are grateful there isn’t a bloody and expensive U.S. Senate primary betweeen Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, that would have it’s own issues, but would mean two open Congressional seats. But when you get down to it this is a bad year and there is limited money and it’s very, very hard recruiting environment. You can’t totally blame party leaders for the grade. It was never going to be an A.

The numbers begin to tell the picture. Republicans had 477 candidates file. Democrats had 354. Then you get down into the nitty gritty. They tried hard to keep Sens. Harold Janeway and Kathy Sgambati to run for re-election. They said no and they were easily the best candidates they could have for those two seats. Their replacements don’t come close. Odell could have been taken out, but not with a guy like Harold Perkins. Beverly Woods might agitate Jeb Bradley, but he will still be thinking more about other races. Senate Minority Leader Peter Bragdon is facing a guy who recently filed a complaint against Ray Buckley with the state Attorney General’s office. And how is John Shea still sticking around as a sitting duck and whose loss means a flip of control on the Executive Council? The one bright spot for Democrats came where they needed it the most: Senate District 16 against freshman Sen. Dave Boutin. For that they recruited Kathy Kelley. But given that Kelley, a Manchester School Board member, just voted for the Grace Sullivan package that the Union Leader is going to write about to the point of embarassment and that Hooksett residents aren’t so hot about Manchester school board members we’ll have to see how well that pick worked also.

Water cooler questions for the weekend

When John Lynch told friends that he was going to file this week to win an historic fourth term did someone tell him to break a leg?

How many musicians are Democrats going to run this year?

Now that we know who is running which one is the sleeper upset race of the year?

What if Rudy Giuliani actually does run for president again?

There is almost no way that Kelly Ayotte is going to come off good when she testifies at the FRM hearings on Monday, but the question is how bad will it be?

UP

Bob Odell: With Concord folks abuzz about a potential 12-12 tie in the State Senate, the Lempster Republican State Senator is considered the best choice for Senate President.

Jim Rausch: The news that Frank Sapareto and Mike Buckley won’t run for District 19 makes this Republican the only Derry candidate in a Senate district that is dominated by that town. Just ask Art Klemm.

Dave Danielson: The Bedford Republican has the backing of outgoing Sheila Roberge and she nearly cleared a primary for him, but without much effort he is going to be a State Senator.

John Lynch: He got a fix to a $300 million budget hole that does not include any new taxes. With that $300 million gorilla off his back, he filed on Friday with a huge turnout of a support with a lot of high energy. Now, he is going to turn his attention to Republican opponent John Stephen and compare and contrast records. This is the moment Lynch has been waiting for since the National Organization of Marriage launched its attack ad. Lynch hasn’t had a real campaign since 2004 and those close to them say he is itching to mix it up. In 2004 Lynch made history by knocking off an incumbent after just one term. Will he make history again?

Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli: While no Democrat should consider their seat safe, getting to run against David Wheeler, whom she has beaten twice before, has to be comforting when her Democrat counterparts are getting stiff opponents across the board.

Jeanne Shaheen: She hosted giant Experience NH Day in Washington featuring a who’s-who of Granite Staters.

NH Political Library/NH Institute of Politics: For all the local press whining about Rudy Giuliani receiving a “Primary Award” this week it was, in the end, a great choice. These groups are showing that the collaboration is not awkward and in actually enhances both organizations.

DOWN

Sylvia Larsen: In the past week it became significantly less likely that she will return to be Senate President.

State Sen. Deb Reynolds: Now that Sens. Janeway and Sgambati aren’t running that only means more Republican money will be spent to trash her.

Merrimack Republican Committee: Merrimack Republicans have complained for years that they wanted someone from their town to be in the State Senate seat a Bedford person has held for 26 years. Now that the seat is open they don’t recruit a SINGLE candidate to run? Put up or shut up.

Francis Lord: The Republican Carroll County candidate for sheriff dropped out of the race after sexy pictures of his wife emerged online. Not the way to go out.

Political Standing for June 4, 2010: A year in review

James Pindell — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 21:56:52 +0000

To mark the year anniversary of this website and the end of the Legislative session (except that little special session thingy next week) Political Standing is taking the long view this week. Below is a list of who is up or down politically compared to where they were in early June 2009.

UP

Ann McLane Kuster: Kuster announced her campaign exactly a year ago and there were significant questions about her. Will she do the work? Can she raise the money? How can she beat such a major player like Katrina Swett in a primary? She has answered all those questions in a good way in the year since. Every candidate running should study how she executes.

Bill Binnie: Binnie was a political unknown a year ago and now even little kids know his name and he is within 9 points from being the Republican frontrunner for the United States Senate. The Senate race is going to look a lot different in just 6 weeks, but he had a great last 52.

Cornerstone Policy Research-Action/Josiah Bartlett Center: Cornerstone, the conservative organization led by Kevin Smith, and the conservative think tank Josiah Bartlett Center both have helped organize and set a counter-narrative while Democrats have power.

Jeb Bradley: Bradley has done just about everything right this past year to make friends and build an enormous team for the Bradley for Governor 2012 campaign. A year ago he was just lucky to be back in the game.

Ted Gatsas: He is no longer the guy frustrated in the Senate, but in the past year he got elected Manchester mayor and seems to be loving the job. He managing John Lynch’s style except he has to do it with members of the opposite party and letting them take credit.

Sununu family: Chairman John H. Sununu has officially rid his party of all its drama and now they are focused with an executive director everyone likes, the top Republican field guy in the state, and most effective communicator (granted it is easier in this climate). John E. Sununu might be out of the Senate, but this is officially the party of Sununu and the next son is running for Executive Council. The Sununu family will be the most important endorsement of the 2012 New Hampshire primary.

Mark Connolly: It is not just those in the Seacoast who know this guy’s name. He worked with purpose this year and avoided being a scapegoat on the FRM matter. Now he might have a Senate run in him.

Lou D’Allesandro: His ability to play the game and keep gambling alive (STILL!) has been impressive to all sides.

Mike Brunelle: He has taken the traditional role of state Democratic Party Executive Director and bumped it up to another level. In addition, this past year he took over the chair of the Manchester Democrats. He is setting himself up to be a big time power player.

Dave Boutin/Andy Sanborn: Both got head starts on their State Senate campaigns and it has paid off.

DOWN

Maggie Hassan: She was the undisputed Democratic front-runner for governor in waiting last summer. Now she remains in a strong position, but missteps along the way have created the sense among activists that there will be no doubt she’ll have a significant primary. From who and how many challengers are the questions. But before we even get to those questions she needs to make sure she wins re-election. Her next finance report will be extremely interesting.

Kelly Ayotte: A year ago she was about the enter the Senate race as the anointed one. She has successfully avoided (so far) becoming a national establishment storyline like others in Florida, Utah, or Kentucky, but now she has a fight on her hands. And she could lose this thing.

Paul Hodes: A year ago he was riding high as the presumptive nominee in one of the nation’s most closely watched U.S. Senate races. This race went from tossup to leans Republican a long time ago.

Ovide Lamontagne: Late in the summer Lamontagne was gunning for that clean two person primary against Ayotte where he could rally the base and take the nomination. Now he is in last place of four people in nearly every metric except endorsements.

Frank Guinta: Guinta probably had the roughest year of them all. He is no longer mayor and no longer the most likely next Congressman for the state’s First Congressional District and now he is barely the front-runner for the nomination and his Democratic incumbent opponent — if he gets there — is beginning to turn the corner.

John Lynch: In the past year Lynch went from teflon to the number one target of Republicans. He has to fly to places like New York and Chicago to raise money now and the internal cause for alarm is legit. But Stephen doesn’t have Benson money.

Tea Party movement: The passion was interesting while it lasted and was totally cyclical. Health care reform has passed and their “perfect” kind of candidates are about to all get blasted in primaries.

Katrina Swett: There were so many moments this year where she could be ended Kuster by bolstering herself. This should be her nomination by right. Does she realize that everyone thinks she is in second place?

Political Standing for May 28, 2010

James Pindell — Fri, 28 May 2010 20:22:54 +0000

UP

Veterans and our military fallen: On this Memorial Day weekend we honor those who have served and those who have paid the ultimate price. Thank you.

Sean Mahoney: The First Congressional District candidate launched his second of first rate television ads and announced an impressive list of sponsors for his Seacoast fundraiser.

Jeb Bradley: With each GOP retirement from the State Senate an immediate credible successor steps up and credit that to chief recruiter Jeb Bradley. Who knew the State Senate could be this much fun?

John Stephen: With newspapers devoted to Peter Hildreth, FRM, Mark Bodi and the acquitted Richard Brothers these have been good news cycles for Stephen. Add to that a DMV/State police bribery prosecution in the offing that may get larger and a budget that’s falling apart and Stephen has the ability now to convince the RNC and RGA to help him more and his state chairman is aggressively making the case that that race is winnable to all who will listen.

House Democratic Leadership: The number one rule about gambling: the House always wins.

Chuck Morse: The former (and future) State Senator is back in the game.

Jim Splaine: He’s going out with a bang – single handedly taking on Kathy Sullivan, Maggie Hassan, the House leadership and the NHDP. He’s cementing his legacy as a principled, independent and influential legislator.

Charlie Bass: Another week went by and nobody – Democrat or Republican – laid a glove on him. Charlie’s “run out the clock” strategy is still working. Is this the country’s most boring open Congressional seat?

Kelly Ayotte: The FRM scandal found its new scapegoat: Peter Hildreth. Hodes’ follow up attempts to tie Ayotte to the scandal are falling flat. At least for the moment she is getting past the issue.

Kathy Sullivan: The former Democratic Party chair wrote the amendment about political speech that got everyone all fired up this week. She continues to drive the conversation.

Albert Einstein: Budget negotiators proved that time is relative.

DOWN

Paul Hodes: The central question for Hodes is whether he will continue to get the national money he needs to pay for his cash burning campaign. The answer depends on where New Hampshire stands as a priority nationwide for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. So let’s look at the nationwide context: This past week a top-tier Republican entered the Senate race in Washington State and now that race is tied. A new candidate emerged two weeks ago in Wisconsin and that race is also suddenly within the margin of error. In Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul’s implosion means that race is getting close enough that it would be malpractice for the DSCC not to invest. And where was Barack Obama this week? In California campaigning for Sen. Barbara Boxer who only leads in single digits for her re-election campaign. A year ago New Hampshire’s Senate race was the most competitive in the country. Months ago it was the Democrats best hope for a flip from red to blue. Now, according to the FiveThirtyEight.com analysis Ohio and Missouri are more likely to flip that way. Context matters and New Hampshire/Paul Hodes is simply less competitive nationwide. At some point campaign finance figures will reflect that.

Maggie Hassan: For someone who wants so badly to set herself up to run for governor it is curious even to Lynch and Shaheen people why she is picking fights on the issues she is these days.

Peter Hildreth: He is officially the scapegoat of what is accused to be the largest Ponzi scheme in state history. Lynch threw him under the bus this week. He needs to try and get out from under the bus and then get on it…out of the state.

Jennifer Horn: The idea that another conservative is thinking about entering her Congressional primary is indictment that he believes that Horn is just not getting it done. Then there are the persistent Concord rumors that Horn won’t even file to become a candidate.