Political Standing
Political Standing for Aug. 27, 2010
The week overview:
From now until November there will be nearly 1,000 candidates on a ballot running for something in New Hampshire from U.S. Senate and Governor to County Register of Probate. Appropriately the most attention goes to the federal races where millions will be spent. But the reality remains that most do not run for these high profile positions and political parties cannot be measured simply on if the right candidate wins the U.S. Senate race. The real work for political parties is in the day to day. Where can they raise money from today? Who can they get to run for state representative that could build a bench tomorrow? Can they recruit and aid candidates to run against incumbents from the other party so that tactically their opponents need to divert resources and so on.
For the entire year until this week how the political parties were doing and how good individual campaigns were doing for state positions were all theory and word of mouth. On Wednesday the first campaign finance records were released. Some campaigns were exposed for their weakness, others impressed.
But amid all the individual campaigns there is a larger story that isn’t being told. It is the story that says locally Democrats are significantly out-raising their Republican counterparts, who are supposed to have all the energy.
Just look at the numbers themselves. If you add up all money raised by Republican candidates running for the State Senate along with the Republican Senate Committee and the State Republican Committee they posted$843,875, nearly half the $1,615,604 the Democrats did.
Republicans can argue they were outspent significantly in special elections like in State Senate District 16 this spring and still won, but money and extra staffers never hurt.
Questions for the weekend:
What exactly is Bill Binnie’s path to victory now? Does he even know?
How badly is Ovide Lamontagne wishing he could find an extra bank account with $250,000 that he previously forgot about?
Is Team Jennifer Horn really so broke that they have to recycle signs from 2008? The ones she dropped off today at the Nashua GOP office today say they are paid for by the New Hampshire Republican State Committee. GOP Party spokesman issued a statement reminding that the party doesn’t endorse in primaries and confirmed they were old signs from the 2008 general election when she was the nominee. Horn manager David Chesley didn’t get back for comment on this carbon neutral aspect to the campaign.
What is the percentage chance that Cornerstone Action’s full page ad in the Union Leader this Sunday will use the word “shockingly?”
Tensions in Carol Shea-Porter land are still high after Monday’s blow up meeting and the parting of ways with CSP’s campaign manager. So to ask publicly what those inside the bubble were asking later in the week: who is the next person to be let go?
What will Gov. John Lynch say when he goes up with a new television ad on Monday?
UP
Sharon Carson: The Freshman Republican State Senator came out of no where to have a great first campaign finance report this year. Will she start spreading that money around and start becoming a bigger player?
Gary Lambert: Freshman Democrat Bette Laskey wasn’t expecting to see that she will have a real race for her Nashua seat. Lambert report suggests he is going to give a good run for it. Remember it is the same district that Democrat Joe Foster won via a recount in 2002.
NH Democratic Party: They are finding the resources to stay competitive.
Deb Reynolds: The Democratic Senator from Plymouth is in the most competitive senate district in the state and now it looks like she might be able to breathe a tad bit easier. She has $47,000 cash on hand compared to her two Republican challengers who have $12,000 and $600 and will spend more to become the GOP nominee in a few weeks.
Paul Hodes: Hodes launched first positive ad this week and everyone likes it. Some describe it as “campy.” Republican ad man Pat Griffin calls it “the Countrytime Lemonaide ad.” During a time of Republican sniping and when most voters are just beginning to tune in it was a good play.
John Stephen: Three good things happened to Stephen this week. First, he had another very impressive campaign finance report showing he out-raised Lynch (excluding Lynch’s loan). Second, he has a really great ad out there (though we can question the timing of a saturated TV ad market). But third was what happened in Florida where a self-funder won the Republican nomination for governor this week. It means that the Republican Governor’s Association won’t need to spend the millions they may have planned to spend had Attorney General Bill McCollum won. Just imagine what a fraction of that money diverted to New Hampshire would do?
Jim Bender: His great new ad comes at a time when some Republicans want to see what other options they have in the U.S. Senate primary. But a $75,000 a week buy is not enough to really become an option. This isn’t July. This is the moment to match Binnie, even for a week, on WMUR or go home. The Union Leader is watching…
Down
Kelly Ayotte: She remains in a strong position for the U.S. Senate Republican nomination, but if she just let others go negative on Binnie she would be sitting even stronger.
Bill Binnie: Has he made any progress in the last week?
David Danielson: The State Senate seat held by retiring Sheila Roberge was basically handed to him, but his report suggests he isn’t even going to pretend trying to campaign.
Kathy Kelley: She is facing a Republican State Senator who has only been in office for a few months and her finance report suggests she isn’t going to call up anyone except friends and family members for donations. We should all stop paying attention to this race until she does.
Frank Guinta: We are now in the third week talking about his amended personal disclosure forms. There is an obvious solution and however undesirable and precedent setting it’s gotta happen.
Gov. John Lynch: He is the most popular governor in state history. He is supposed to be so powerful, popular and untouchable that no one wanted to run against him. But maybe he is taking his re-election for granted again. He didn’t raise the money he needed. This week his schedule included attending a blood drive and meeting Portsmouth Little Leaguers. We won’t call it the Rose Garden strategy since the Apple Orchard strategy is more accurate for the governor with his new house. But nationally, some outside groups read this report and are smelling blood. Why didn’t he loan himself huge money he will never spend just to tell everyone else not to play in his sandbox? He didn’t have to spend it.
Republican Chair John H. Sununu: No one is listening to his calls about party unity and this week people were wondering where all that money he was supposed to bring to the party went?
Nancy Stiles: It was a nice thought that there was an aggressive, experienced Republican female candidate running a real campaign against a sleeping Martha Fuller Clark in a Republican year. But her $7,000 cash on hand against Clark’s $61,000 isn’t demanding a lot of attention.